Why doesn’t Zoomlion rise? ——Analysis of recent market performance and industry hot spots
Recently, the A-share market has experienced shock and adjustment, and the performance of the construction machinery sector has been divided. As the industry leader, Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ) stock price has continued to slump, attracting investors' attention. This article combines hot topics and structured data on the Internet in the past 10 days to analyze the reasons for the sluggish stock price.
1. Review of market hot spots (last 10 days)
| Date | hot events | Related impacts |
|---|---|---|
| May 20 | The central bank lowers the LPR interest rate | The benefits of the infrastructure sector have not been realized |
| May 22 | Sany Heavy Industry's overseas orders exceed expectations | Horizontal competition pressure emerges |
| May 25 | New real estate policies are being introduced intensively | Expected improvement in construction machinery demand is limited |
2. Fundamental data of Zoomlion
| indicator | 2024Q1 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| Operating income (100 million yuan) | 112.58 | +8.3% |
| Net profit attributable to parent company (100 million yuan) | 9.24 | -5.7% |
| Gross profit margin | 22.1% | -1.2pct |
3. Six major reasons why stock prices do not rise
1.Performance growth slows down: Net profit growth in the first quarter was negative, lower than competitors such as Sany Heavy Industry (+11.5%).
2.Overseas expansion fell short of expectations: Overseas revenue will account for only 18% in 2023, while Sany Heavy Industry will account for 45% during the same period.
3.Industry cycle impact: Excavator sales fell 9.3% year-on-year in April, and downstream demand still needs to recover.
| product type | Sales volume in April (Taiwan) | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|
| excavator | 15,750 | -9.3% |
| Crane | 2,380 | -6.8% |
4.Decline in funding attention: In the past month, northbound funds have reduced their holdings by 120 million yuan, and the number of institutional surveys has decreased by 40% month-on-month.
5.Valuation advantage is not obvious: The current PE (TTM) is 11.3 times, higher than the industry average of 10.5 times.
6.Policy transmission lags behind: The accelerated issuance of special bonds has not yet significantly boosted demand for equipment procurement.
4. Comparison of institutional perspectives
| institution | Rating | Target price (yuan) |
|---|---|---|
| CITIC Securities | Overweight | 8.5 |
| CICC | Neutral | 7.2 |
| Guotai Junan | Reduce holdings | 6.8 |
5. Focus on future observations
1. Construction machinery export data in June (especially the Southeast Asian market)
2. Can gross profit margin rise to above 23% in the second quarter?
3. Implementation of new urbanization construction policies
4. Market acceptance of hybrid power products
The current weakness in stock prices reflects the market's cautious expectations for the pace of recovery in the construction machinery industry. Investors need to pay attention to the data verification of the industry's traditional peak season from June to July, as well as the breakthrough progress of the company's overseas business.
check the details
check the details
en
